Given the way Russia is stuck in the Ukrainian trench warfare, opening a second front is exactly what the Kremlin needs. Let me say right off the bat that this is in my opinion.
The Taiwan conflict will accelerate all the processes that Moscow is interested in:
- De-dollarization and the actual creation of a large Eurasian military-economic bloc as a counterweight to NATO.
- The price of any kind of energy will become even higher. War requires an enormous expenditure of energy. We saw this perfectly well in Ukraine, which the Americans ended up hooking up to a huge fuel drip. Yes and a lot of other raw materials for heavy industry will also be needed.
- The focus of the Americans will shift away from Ukraine. Obviously the funding and arms supplies will be reduced. Almost all of the Soviet inheritance from eastern Europe was sent there, and not a small part from NATO depots. Even a couple of articles came out that all this was supplied so far to the detriment of the defense capabilities of Taiwan and their orders to the Americans. With the opening of the second front, everything will turn accordingly. Ukraine is also demanding $7 billion in direct subsidies to the budget, which it will of course be deprived of. This will be the end of its defense capabilities. No one will want to fight for a bankrupt state.
- Accelerated stagflation in the United States and Europe. The conflict and sanctions on the 3% of the Russian economy led to you know what. And what will happen if we start doing the same thing with China? The Americans do not want to give up on their green agenda (the right people have invested too much in it). And most of this green energy is based on supplies from China. In a sanctions mess with China you can get a drop in GDP not by a couple of percent, but by ten percent, as well as inflation instead of 10% by 25%.
- In a military alliance with China we can begin to solve some more global military problems. Like Japan, the Middle East, and so on. Regarding China’s assistance in Ukraine: Iran is already supplying drones to Russia, what prevents China from starting to do so in the event of an open confrontation with the U.S.?
- Sanctions as such will become meaningless, because the world will simply divide into two large camps with their own non-overlapping contours for any task. From pads to microchips.